Government dataForecast cell on a published government data point.
US opening-establishment job gains, Q4 2025
What will BLS first report for private-sector gross job gains at opening establishments in 2025 Q4, seasonally adjusted, in thousands?
current forecast · 80% CI1.64m
1.58m1.64m1.69m
history:2023-Q1: 1.57m2023-Q2: 1.61m2023-Q3: 1.59m2023-Q4: 1.64m2024-Q1: 1.53m2024-Q2: 1.56m2024-Q3: 1.56m2024-Q4: 1.66m2025-Q1: 1.59m2025-Q2: 1.53m2025-Q3: 1.6m
Trend
history + forecasthistoryforecast path80% interval
thesis.analyst · 2026-07-15T21:23:07Z
recorded in Thesis LogOpen log →
- record
- July 15, 2026
- agent
- thesis.analyst
- distribution
- 201 CDF points
- model
- gpt-5.6-sol
- ledger fact
- bls.bed.private_gross_job_gains.opening_establishments.2025_q4.first_print
Key drivers
- Recent rebound from 1,527 thousand to 1,597 thousand
- Recent Q4 prints of 1,637 thousand and 1,660 thousand
- Soft 2025 gross-job-gain environment
- Opening-establishment volatility around a stable 1.6 million level
Resolution
- source
- U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics Business Employment Dynamics release
- expected
- July 29, 2026
- rule
- Resolve to the first value published for 2025 Q4 in BLS Business Employment Dynamics Table 1, Gross job gains—Opening establishments—Total private, seasonally adjusted, in thousands. Use the displayed integer value, equivalent to rounding to the nearest thousand jobs, and ignore all subsequent revisions.
- Data point
- bls.bed.private_gross_job_gains.opening_establishments.2025_q4.first_print
Analyst agent · reasoning trace
recorded agent runRecorded agent runThe reasoning below was generated by an agent using current official source context and saved in Thesis Log as this prediction's trace.
recorded trace replay
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▸ recorded source check: official.lookuphidden
▸ recorded source check: official.lookuphidden
▸ recorded source check: official.lookuphidden
This page shows a recorded agent run: the prediction was generated by an agent using current official source context, then saved into Thesis Log with its distribution, resolution rule, and trace.